April 5-6, 2022

 

4.6.22 3pm:

The NWS is keeping us in the Slight Risk category for any storms which are able to fire this afternoon and evening. So far not much activity, but we will continue to monitor. There’s plenty of MLCAPE (instability in the atmosphere) but not a ton of deep level shear at the moment so the tornado risk is quite a bit lower than yesterday. This type of set up favors gusty winds and hail if the storms are able to sustain themselves. As the cold front approaches there is an opportunity for the deep level shear to increase, so we’ve got our eye on it. Overview/What's New: There remains the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

  • WHAT:  Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and localized damaging wind gusts.
  • WHEN:  This afternoon and evening.
  • WHERE:  There is a Slight Risk across most of the region, with the exception of a Marginal Risk across parts of inland SE MS.
  • CONFIDENCE: Low  

4.5.22 - 2p.m.

 

4.5.22 - 1:40 p.m.

The National Weather Service In Mobile Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Warning For...Southeastern Okaloosa County In Northwestern Florida...* Until 745 Pm Cdt Tuesday.

* At 137 Pm Cdt, Doppler Radar Indicated Thunderstorms ProducingHeavy Rain Across The Warned Area. The Expected Rainfall Rate Is 1

To 3 Inches In 1 Hour. Additional Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 4 Inches Are Possible In The Warned Area. Flash Flooding Is OngoingOr Expected To Begin Shortly.

Impact...Flash Flooding Of Small Creeks And Streams, uban Areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as Other Poor Drainage And Low-Lying Areas.

* Some Locations That Will Experience Flash Flooding Include...Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin Afb, Valparaiso, Mary Esther, Lake Lorraine, Ocean City, Shalimar,

Cinco Bayou, Eglin Village, Longwood, Postil And Seminole.

4.5.22 - 1:30 p.m.

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...
Southeastern Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
* Until 200 PM CDT.
* At 120 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Crestview to 3 miles northeast of
Navarre Beach, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB,
Valparaiso, Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, Cinco
Bayou and Navarre Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for northwestern
Florida.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for northwestern
Florida.

 

4.5.22 - 12:30 p.m.

The northwestern areas of the County will be impacted by the storm system shortly, followed by the remainder of the county from NW to SE as the line passes through.

Watches/Advisories

-Tornado Watch in effect until 2 p.m.

-Severe thunderstorm warning until 1:15 p.m. (60 mph gusts - radar indicated)

-Wind Advisory in effect until 6 p.m. (sustained winds 15-25mph with gusts of 40 mph or more)

-Small craft advisory

-Gulf water is closed for swimming (double red flags are flying at the beach)

An Enhanced Risk of severe storms will persist throughout the day. Storms that develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts upwards of 70 mph, large hail, and tornadoes (some potentially strong).

4.5.22 8:30am SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE - There are no changes to the impacts for Today's event. There is a slight adjustment to delay the squall line timing by a couple of hours, and extend the timing through 6pm. We still expect two rounds of severe weather today and those details are broken down in the bulleted points below. A Tornado Watch is now in effect for the entire area until 2pm. Additional watches will be possible later today. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for this Afternoon and Evening for expected breaker heights of 5 to 6 feet. Minor coastal flooding is still a possibility in the northern portion of Mobile Bay in the mid to late afternoon hours (potentially impacting the Causeway near the eastbound I-10 onramp). A High Risk of Rip Currents persists through Thursday.

  • WHAT: Two rounds of severe weather are expected with today's event. The first round of severe storms will be the ongoing supercells ahead of the squall line as a warm front continues to move northward. Damaging winds, fast-moving tornadoes (a few strong tornadoes possible), and large hail are all possible with these supercells. The second round of severe storms will be associated with the squall line. Damaging winds up to 70mph and fast-moving tornadoes are possible with the squall line. Flash flooding is possible (especially across urban areas, flood-prone areas, and our typical low-lying spots) as these storms will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a short period of time.
  • WHEN: The ongoing supercell development across southeast Mississippi and parts of southwest /south-central Alabama will continue throughout the morning into the early afternoon hours ahead of the squall line. The supercell development is expected to expand further southeast to include the western Florida Panhandle by late this morning. Based on the latest guidance, the squall line should enter our southeast Mississippi counties around 9am and should be nearing the I-65 corridor by 1pm. The line will likely be exiting our northwest Florida counties around 6pm. Flooding remains a concern throughout the day, but especially as the squall line slides across the area. (Note: the timing listed on the severe map reflects the entire window of concern for both the supercells and squall line.)
  • WHERE: All of southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, south-central Alabama, and northwest Florida.
  • CONFIDENCE: Confidence remains high in both rounds of severe weather today.
We still expect yet another round of strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours. At this time, it does not appear that this event will be nearly as potent as the event today, but damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado are all possible.
 

3.30 - 3.31.22

3:05am Now that the storms are leaving the area, morning commutes approach in the next couple of hours and the tornado watch is canceled, we want to be sure to remind everyone to avoid driving over water flowing over the roadways. Use caution. There will be standing water over low-lying areas. Avoid downed power lines. Assume all lines are live. Call 911 if one is discovered. We hope everyone stayed safe overnight. We will share relevant updates on major damage and/or flooding reports. If you sustained storm damage, please report it here: https://survey123.arcgis.com/share/8ce4fbeca4a34dc58a12d40bdd4866f1

 
2:50 am Road Closure. Tree and Lines Down on Buck Tyner in Laurel Hill between Plympton and Pate.
 
**Updated Warning at 2:15am**
Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 3:00 AM CDT for Okaloosa County, FL. More information --> https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=6789991

1:45am Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

**1:30am update** Significant winds up to 70 mph or greater will impact Crestview, FL area. Take cover now.

1:20pm Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 2:15 AM CDT for Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Escambia County, FL. More information.

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

1:15 pm **Update** Intense rotation with likely tornado is moving through Floridale now and will be heading northeast rapidly. This may produce a strong tornado and impact Kellys Mill to Baker, FL. Take cover immediately as this is a potentially very dangerous storm!

1pm Heavy stuff in bound. Lots of hail and rotation in Santa Rosa County storms moving East into Okaloosa.

inbound.jpg

 

12:45am Tornado Warning until 1:30 AM CDT for Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL. More information at https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=67897140

12:19 am Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Mobile AL
1216 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...
Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
Escambia County in northwestern Florida...
* Until 115 AM CDT.

 

 

10:30pm We were live around 10:30 pm at the Okaloosa County Emergency Operations Command Center with Public Safety Director Patrick Maddox for a severe weather update.

 

10pm We've just finished a safety briefing and expect to start feeling the effects of the rough weather around 11pm. We are still some time away from the impact of the squall line and continue to experience gusty conditions with sustained winds around 20MPH. Many of the storms are moving at 50+ MPH, so keep weather-aware.

Here are some detail and a glimpse at our Emergency Operations Command Center:
EOC enhanced monitoring. Modified level 2.
Expected impacts: Midnight to 4:30am
We could experience Flash Flooding but it’s a fast-moving storm. 1-2” of rain is expected.
River Flooding is not predicted.
Max sustained winds are not expected to reach 40+ mph so bridge closures are not expected
Damage Assessment Team standing by
Roads Division, standing by
Coordinating with other local response agencies.
If this were a full EOC activation (such as a hurricane or other major disaster) this large room would be full of Okaloosa County Response teams including law enforcement, animal control, logistics, public health, transportation, schools, IT, mass care... the list goes on and on. It has proven to be a very efficient way for Emergency Management teams to collaborate swiftly for the safety for our community. For a severe weather situation like we are experiencing this evening, we have our Pubic Safety and Emergency Management team onsite monitoring, guiding and alerting through alert systems such as AlertOkaloosa.com (everbridge).

7:30pm Severe Weather Update. Our area is under a Tornado Watch until 4am. Here's a snap shot of the severe weather system setting up to our West. There have been numerous tornadoes and wind damage reports associated with the system. We are still hours away from the main impact and will continue to provide updates. Monitor warnings at https://bit.ly/3DotTT5WeatherWarnings Other advisories include:

  • Rip Current Statement until April 2, 06:00 AM CDT
  • Wind Advisory until March 31, 12:00 AM CDT
  • High Surf Warning until March 31, 06:00 PM CDT
  • Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from March 30, 03:00 PM CDT until March 31, 06:00 AM CDT
  • Tornado Watch in effect from March 30, 06:35 PM CDT until March 31, 04:00 AM CDT

11:30am Okaloosa County Public Safety Director, Patrick Maddox has completed a call with National Weather Service and Florida Division of Emergency Management. Here's what we know about tonight's rough weather:

  • No great changes to our expected impacts in Okaloosa. The timing has slowed just a little bit on arrival of the storm line (12AM instead of 11PM) but the exit time of 5AM still holds due to the fast-moving nature of this system.
  • The weather expected to impact our area during this event will be dangerous, placing the entire forecast area in the “Moderate Risk” category. This will be a fast moving system with the capability of delivering gusts to 80MPH within stronger thunderstorms, and producing strong, fast-moving rain-wrapped tornadoes with little time to react. Some of these strong tornadoes could be long-track, remaining on the ground for extended periods. Ahead of the main storm line we are not expecting wide-spread supercell development, but strong southerly winds of 20-30MPH, gusts to 55MPH throughout this afternoon are likely.
  • We are already seeing the winds increase and are flying double red flags oat the beach (Destin as well). Surf heights will quickly increase to the 9’-12’ range throughout the day today with associated dangerous rip currents and dangerous back-break. Some minor coastal flooding of 1-2 feet is possible.
  • Rain totals in the 1-3” range are likely with some locally higher amounts in areas where storms travel repeatedly. Heavy downpours are possible, but the system will be moving so quickly that flash flood threats are limited. The current expectation is that the system will be clear of our area between around 5AM Thursday, but there is always room for adjustment there based upon exact storm evolution.
  • The Emergency Operations Command Center will activate to Level 2 at 5PM this evening with Command Staff and limited Sections/Branches staffed. We will remain at the EOC through the overnight hours to coordinate county response to the threat.
  • An Everbridge (Alert Okaloosa) notice was sent to Okaloosa County residents last evening at 5PM to give adequate time to prepare and react. Didn't get a message? Click here to sign up for Alert Okaloosa Emergency Messages: https://bit.ly/3ksJhmtAlertOkaloosa.
  • We will continue to update as necessary, keep an eye on https://www.weather.gov/mob/ for the latest developments in this weather event.
 
 

 

 

10am: Double Red Flags. water is closed

 


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3.22.22 10am

 

 

3.21.22 9:20pm

 

 

3.18.22 4:30pm

 

 

3.18.22 1:15pm

 

 

3.18.22 - 11:47am

 

3.18.22 - 10am